Findings from New Aquaculture Nutrition Study

By Jessica Gephart, Assistant Professor, Environmental Science, American University

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals requires that the global food system improve food and nutrition security without overwhelming environmental limits. Aquaculture presents an opportunity to meet this grand challenge through the production of nutrient-dense, low environmental impact foods. Since aquaculture encompasses a wide range of species and cultivation methods that result in diverse social, economic, nutritional, and environmental outcomes, the specific role of aquaculture in a more sustainable, food-secure future depends on how the sector evolves in the coming years.

In a recent paper, we explored the role of aquaculture in meeting future demand and supporting nutrition needs by developing and comparing alternative, plausible futures. The resulting scenarios are defined by their economic growth strategy and degree of globalization:

Aquatic Chicken (growth first, globalized) Economic globalization increases, and countries prioritize economic growth. The aquaculture industry develops intensive production systems that draw on genetic and technological improvements but are subject to limited environmental regulation. Production systems rely on globalized supply chains by importing feed ingredients and taking advantage of low labor costs for processing abroad. This favors high volume production of only a few species results, which are highly traded and inexpensive.

Aqua-nationalism (growth-first, regionalized) Countries turn inward, focusing on supporting national seafood industries. While domestic demand fuels production for local markets, limited technology transfer, sparse development, and import barriers result in less efficient production at the country level and higher prices. Overall, the diversity of seafood available in each country generally declines but is tailored to local preferences.

Food Sovereignty (sustainable growth, regionalized) Countries adopt sustainable local food production approaches focused on small-holder production. Some highly productive traditional systems meet local demand, but global aquaculture production stagnates, and total production is relatively low. This production is more often directed at the most nutritionally vulnerable, particularly when production is at the household scale and women play a key role in production and distribution.

Blue Internationalism (sustainable growth, globalized) The world fully embraces sustainable development principles, taking advantage of the benefits of globalized food supply chains while strengthening environmental governance. Global competition and high levels of technology transfer lead to relatively high global inland and marine seafood production. High global seafood production and low trade barriers enable relatively low seafood prices, improving economic access in urban areas and areas with transportation infrastructure connections and access to electricity for refrigeration. 

Positive nutrition outcomes are possible in all of these scenarios, but each requires some degree of additional public policy commitment. Such commitments appear more likely within sustainable growth and more globally harmonized approaches. While features of each scenario are already present in existing aquaculture systems, there is substantial room for these to change course. Aquaculture production is projected to continue growing and expanding, creating a substantial opportunity for policies, market instruments, and consumer education to guide development toward improved nutrition and environmental outcomes. These scenarios can therefore prompt discussion about which futures are desirable and help chart a course for how to get there.